SME Distress Predictor

Choose Assessment Mode

Select the type of business you are assessing

Running SME: A business with at least 6 months of operating history. You have real employee numbers, actual revenue, and observable financial behaviour.

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Section 1 — Business Profile

Basic information about the business

Country Required

Sector Optional

Years in operation Required Minimum 1 year — use Startup mode for newer ventures

Legal structure Optional

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Section 2 — Workforce

Current and historical headcount

Current full-time staff Required

Staff 3 years ago Required Enter 0 if business is less than 3 years old

Full-time vs part-time split Optional

Skilled / trained workers (%) Optional

50%

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Section 3 — Finance & Credit Access

How the business is funded and its access to credit

Does the business need external funding? Required

Does the business have an active loan/overdraft? Required

Annual revenue (last fiscal year) Required

USD

🌍 Showing in USD

Revenue trend over 3 years Optional

Internal finance (%) Optional

70%

Retained earnings / owner savings

Profit position Optional

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Section 4 — Operational Health

Production capacity and operational output

Capacity utilisation (% of full potential in use) Required

65%

Below 60% = low capacity signal. Above 80% = healthy utilisation.

Export activity Optional

Has experienced a major crisis (2 yrs) Optional

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Section 5 — Business Environment & Obstacles

Rate how severely each obstacle affects your business

Electricity supply obstacle?

Access to finance is a major barrier?

Informal sector competition obstacle?

Corruption / bribery obstacle?

Self-assessed business health Optional

Management practices (tick all that apply) Optional

Uses KPIs / performance targets Shares targets with employees Performance-linked pay for non-managers

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Section 1 — Venture Overview

Tell us about your startup plan

🚀 Startup Mode: You don't have historical data — that's fine. Answer based on your business plan, financial projections, and market research. The model will assess your projected risk profile against patterns from 14,688 real African businesses. Results reflect how startups with similar projections tend to perform, not a guarantee.

Country of operation Required

Sector Required

Stage of venture Required

Legal structure (planned) Optional

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Section 2 — Team & Founders

Team quality is a primary predictor of startup viability

Number of founders Required

Planned initial team size (year 1) Required Include founders + any paid employees

Founders' relevant industry experience Required

Has at least one founder previously run a business? Required

Highest education level among founders Optional

Does the team have a technical co-founder? Optional

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Section 3 — Financial Projections

Based on your business plan (be realistic — over-optimism is the most common startup failure mode)

Projected Year 1 revenue Projection

USD

🌍 Showing in USD

Projected Year 3 revenue Projection

USD

Startup capital available / raised Required

Primary funding source Required

Does the venture need external financing to launch/grow? Required

Has a loan / credit line already been secured? Required

Projected months to break-even Projection

Planned capacity utilisation at launch (%) Projection

50%

Realistic estimate of what % of potential output you will actually sell at launch

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Section 4 — Market Validation & Product Readiness

Market traction reduces startup risk significantly

Has the venture made any sales (even pilot / pre-sales)? Required

Has paying customer commitment / LOI? Optional

Target market size assessment Required

Competition level in target market Required

Does the business plan to export or serve international clients? Optional

Does the product/service solve a problem with a clear existing demand? Required

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Section 5 — Operating Environment

Environmental risks the startup will face from day one

Expected electricity / infrastructure challenge?

Regulatory / licensing complexity?

Informal sector competition expected to be a challenge?

Is the business model dependent on a single customer / contract?

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risk signals

🟢 Stable

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🟠 Moderate Risk

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🔴 High Risk

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📡 Key risk signals detected

🧠 Feature influence (v2 model)

🌍 Country benchmark

✅ Recommended actions

⚠️ Disclaimer: This tool provides structured risk scoring based on 14,688 real African business profiles (World Bank Enterprise Surveys, v2 leakage-corrected model, ROC-AUC 0.8636). It is not a definitive verdict. Use alongside professional due diligence.

How the model works

STEP 01

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Answer the profile questions

Finance, team, operations, environment — tailored to SME or Startup mode

STEP 02

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32 features computed

Sales productivity, finance stress, obstacle burden, firm maturity, and more

STEP 03

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XGBoost classifies

Stable / Moderate Risk / High Risk — ROC-AUC 0.8636 across 8 countries

STEP 04

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SHAP explains why

See exactly which features drove your risk classification