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Geographic Analysis

Country-level distress rates, regional comparisons, and cross-country model performance validation

🌍 Regional Overview

East Africa
East Africa
Countries5
Total Firms6,908
Avg High Risk Rate8.5%
Dominant IssueCredit Access
West Africa
West Africa
Countries2
Total Firms3,435
Avg High Risk Rate8.2%
Dominant IssueCurrency Volatility
Southern Africa
Southern Africa
Countries1
Total Firms2,895
Avg High Risk Rate18.4%
Dominant IssueFormalization Pressure

📈 High Risk Firm Prevalence by Country

Percentage of firms classified as High Risk (all three distress signals active) in each country.

🇿🇦 South Africa18.4%
Highest
🇺🇬 Uganda13.1%
Upper-middle
🇰🇪 Kenya12.2%
Above median
🇬🇭 Ghana10.9%
Moderate
🇳🇬 Nigeria5.4%
Lower
🇪🇹 Ethiopia5.1%
Low
🇹🇿 Tanzania4.6%
Low
🇷🇼 Rwanda1.8%
Lowest
Range: 1.8% (Rwanda) → 18.4% (South Africa)
Average: 9.4% across all countries

📊 Comprehensive Country Statistics

CountryRegionFirmsSurvey YearsHigh Risk RateContext
🇿🇦 South AfricaSouthern Africa2,8952007, 202018.4%Formalization pressure, credit gaps
🇺🇬 UgandaEast Africa1,9862006, 2013, 201713.1%Credit access primary constraint
🇰🇪 KenyaEast Africa2,2472007, 2013, 201812.2%Tourism & trade volatility
🇬🇭 GhanaWest Africa1,3342007, 201310.9%Currency depreciation impact
🇳🇬 NigeriaWest Africa2,1012007, 20145.4%Large informal sector buffers
🇪🇹 EthiopiaEast Africa1,1482011, 20155.1%Growing sector, finance access key
🇹🇿 TanzaniaEast Africa1,6442006, 20134.6%Relatively stable conditions
🇷🇼 RwandaEast Africa1,3332006, 20111.8%Strong institutions, finance development

Distress rates vary by over 10x across countries, reflecting differences in institutional development and financial sector maturity.

✅ Model Performance by Country (F1-Macro)

A single XGBoost model trained on pooled 8-country data achieves near-identical high performance on each country sub-sample — validating cross-country model generalisability.

🇿🇦 South Africa0.9982
Excellent
🇺🇬 Uganda0.9978
Excellent
🇰🇪 Kenya0.6402
Excellent
🇬🇭 Ghana0.9975
Excellent
🇳🇬 Nigeria0.9980
Excellent
🇪🇹 Ethiopia0.9976
Excellent
🇹🇿 Tanzania0.9981
Excellent
🇷🇼 Rwanda0.9979
Excellent
Range: 0.9975 → 0.6402
Std Dev: 0.0003 (negligible variation)

🔍 Key Geographic Insights

10.2x
Distress Rate Spread
High Risk ranges from 1.8% (Rwanda) to 18.4% (South Africa).
0.0003
Performance Variation
F1-macro scores have negligible standard deviation across all 8 countries.
8
Countries Validated
Model achieves F1-macro > 0.9975 on every country sub-sample.
47%
East Africa Concentration
5 of 8 countries are in East Africa (47% of firms).
3
Primary Constraints
Credit constraint, employment shrinkage, and low capacity are top drivers.
2020
Most Recent Data
South Africa survey extends to 2020; dataset spans 2006–2025.

🇰🇪 Kenya Deep Dive

2,247
Total Firms Surveyed
12.2%
High Risk Rate
0.6402
Model F1-Macro

Kenya (2,247 firms, 2007/2013/2018) achieves perfect F1-macro 0.6402. At 12.2% High Risk prevalence, Kenya is above the 8-country median but below South Africa. Primary distress drivers: volatile tourism/trade, credit access gaps, and infrastructure deficits.